Kansas City, MO – April 15, 2025 — A new study presented at the SCC-76 Annual Meeting reveals that growing U.S. agricultural exports may be increasing production risks for American farmers, particularly those cultivating corn and soybeans.

Researchers Jiyeon Kim of North Dakota State University and Jisang Yu of Korea University examined over three decades of data across U.S. counties, analyzing how export exposure relates to agricultural yield volatility. Their analysis draws from crop insurance records, climate data, and export figures from 1991 to 2023.

“Our findings suggest that higher export exposure is significantly associated with greater yield risks,” said Kim. “This is especially evident in soybean-producing counties.”

The researchers used the loss-cost ratio (LCR)—a measure of yield risk calculated by dividing total indemnity payments by insurance liabilities—to quantify production risk. They discovered that as export volumes increase, the LCR also rises, particularly due to losses from drought and excess moisture.

The implications are significant. While access to international markets boosts revenue potential for farms, it may also incentivize practices like monocropping or expansion into less fertile land—strategies that heighten sensitivity to climate shocks such as droughts, floods, or heat waves.

“Understanding how trade and climate change impact agricultural practices and decision-making is crucial,” said Kim. “As both global demand for U.S. agricultural products and climate vulnerability increase, so too must our strategies for mitigating risk.”

The authors suggest that future research should explore how trade impacts price risks and develop the localized measures of trade exposure to guide agricultural policy and insurance planning.