Featured Publications

Proposition 12 Increased Consumer Costs in U.S. Pork Markets

Using retail and wholesale data from 2020 to 2026, this study evaluates how Proposition 12 affected pork prices, market segmentation, and consumer costs. The results show that compliant pork remains a small share of the market but commands higher prices, with retail price increases nearly three times larger than wholesale premiums. Overall, the policy led to higher consumer costs, exceeding $400 million, while reducing pork purchases in affected states.

Fertilizer Price Projections Under Strait of Hormuz Disruption Scenarios

This study evaluates how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affect fertilizer prices and agricultural costs using a global fertilizer market model and 25 years of trade data. The results show that fertilizer prices could rise sharply across all scenarios, with urea reaching up to $996 per ton and remaining elevated through 2027. Despite lower prices than in 2022, affordability worsens due to lower crop prices, increasing cost pressure on farmers and reducing demand.

Routine Actuarial Adjustments Cut Taxpayer Cost in Subsidized Agricultural Insurance

Routine adjustments to crop insurance rating parameters can significantly reduce taxpayer costs while maintaining program effectiveness. The results show that updating all ratemaking parameters reduces taxpayer expenditure by roughly 10% annually, while updating reference yields alone can generate savings of up to 15%. However, gains are uneven across states, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving actuarially sound and fiscally efficient pricing.

Evolving U.S. Tariffs on Agri-Food Imports and Farm Inputs: From Broad Measures to Targeted Exemptions

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-08

2026

Shawn Arita, Jiyeon Kim, Sandro Steinbach

U.S. Dairy Safety Net Programs: History, Program Design, and Recent Performance

ARPC Report 2026-05

2026

Yifei Zhang, Shawn Arita, Sandro Steinbach

Crop Insurance Penetration in the United States, 2025

ARPC Report 2026-04

2026

Tsiboe, Francis; Zho, Hongxi; Turner, Dylan; Chakravorty, Rwit; Davis, Walker; Steinbach, Sandro

Tier-2 Sugar Imports under IEEPA & Section 122 and Outlook with New Section 301 Tariffs

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-07

2026

Shawn Arita, MingWang, and Sandro Steinbach

A Technical Manual for Stochastic Simulation of Crop Yield, Price, and Policy Outcomes

ARPC Report 2026-03

2026

Junkan Li, Shawn Arita, and Sandro Steinbach

Assessing the 2020 U.S.-China Phase One Agreement: Lessons for 2026 Ag Commitments

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-06

2026

Shawn Arita, Fred Gale, Jiyeon Kim, and Sandro Steinbach

A One-Year Retrospective Assessment of China’s 2025/26 Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-05

2026

Shawn Arita, Sandro Steinbach, and Xiting Zhuang

Agricultural Production, Productivity, and Research Investment in North Dakota

ARPC Report 2026-02

2026

Junkan Li, William Nganje, and Sandro Steinbach

Size and Growth of the United States Crop Insurance Portfolio, 2025

ARPC Report 2026-01

2026

Francis Tsiboe, Rwit Chakravorty, Hongxi Zhao, Dylan Turner, and Sandro Steinbach

Fertilizer Price Projections Under Strait of Hormuz Disruption Scenarios

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-04

2026

Arita Shawn, Wang Ming, Kim Jiyeon, Chakravorty Rwit, and Steinbach Sandro

Strait of Hormuz Closure and Global Fertilizer Trade Disruptions

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-03

2026

Shawn Arita, Rwit Chakravorty, Jiyeon Kim, Wuit Yi Lwin, and Sandro Steinbach

How IEEPA Tariffs Shaped U.S. Biofuel Feedstock Imports in 2025

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-02

2026

Shawn Arita, Matthew Gammans, Jiyeon Kim, Sandro Steinbach, and Xiting Zhuang

IEEPA Fertilizer Tariffs: Revenue, Relief, and Pass-Through

NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-01

2026

Shawn Arita, Rwit Chakravorty, Jiyeon Kim, Wuit Yi Lwin, Sandro Steinbach, Ming Wang, and Xiting Zhuang

USDA Moves to Restore the Prevented Planting Buy-Up Option: What It Means for Producers

ARPC Brief 2026-20

2026

Rwit Chakravorty, Francis Tsiboe, Dylan Turner, and Shawn Arita

Margins Under Pressure: MCO and the 2026 Hormuz Disruption

ARPC Brief 2026-19

2026

Rwit Chakravorty,Henrique Monaco, and FrancisTsiboe

Explore our recent research, commentary, and updates on evolving challenges in agricultural risk and policy.