Assessing the 2020 U.S.-China Phase One Agreement: Lessons for 2026 Ag Commitments

➩ Recent U.S.–China negotiations have revived agricultural purchase commitments. The October 2025 Busan summit included large soybean purchase targets, while the May 2026 Beijing meeting introduced a new non-soybean purchase target. These commitments resemble those made under the 2020–21 Phase One Agreement. This report revisits China’s Phase One commitments, trade outcomes, and policy implementation to assess where gains proved durable, where they faded, and what lessons they offer for the new round of commitments.

➩ U.S. agricultural exports to China expanded sharply under Phase One. Shipments rose from a trade-war trough of $9–14 billion in 2018–19 to $26.4 billion in 2020 and $32.8 billion in 2021, before reaching a record $38.0 billion in 2022. China achieved nearly 80% of the two-year agricultural purchase target and implemented 50 of 57 deadline-based agricultural commitments by October 2020, though not all gains proved durable.

➩ The longest-lasting gains came from market-access reforms rather than purchase volumes. China’s imports of U.S. beef rose from a $25 million base in 2017 to a peak of $1.82 billion in 2022. U.S. poultry captured 27–30% of China’s import market after the country lifted its HPAI-related ban and adopted regionalization. Tree-nut exports also expanded several-fold and retained much of that growth through 2022–24.

➩ Bulk commodity gains were substantial but less durable. China’s imports of U.S. corn rose to nearly 20 million metric tons (MMT) in 2021, briefly giving the United States roughly 70% of China’s corn import market. By 2025, however, the U.S. share had fallen below 1% as Brazil gained market access and Chinese grain imports contracted. Wheat gains similarly faded as Australian harvests recovered. Soybean exports rebounded in both value and volume but never fully regained their pre-trade-war position.

➩ The Phase One export surge coincided with unusually favorable market conditions. High commodity prices, tight Chinese feed supplies, declining domestic corn stocks, and elevated pork import demand following African Swine Fever all contributed to the strong growth in U.S. export values during the implementation period.

➩ Export growth appears more consistent with additive expansion than simple trade redirection. Across priority commodities, increases in U.S. shipments to China generally occurred alongside growth in overall U.S. exports, suggesting that sales to China were not merely diverted from other destinations. Wheat and cotton were the primary exceptions, with reductions in other markets exceeding gains realized in China.

➩ Tariff waivers were central to Phase One’s commercial impact. While the agreement left Section 301 retaliatory tariffs in place, China relied on a waiver process to facilitate purchases. Broadly available exclusions during 2020–21 effectively reduced duties on soybeans, corn, wheat, and beef to near-standard rates and enabled most of the observed increase in trade volumes.

➩ Durability proved to be the central challenge. Although export growth from 2020–22 was substantial, bulk commodity volumes declined in subsequent years and several market-access channels narrowed. Beef, poultry, and tree nuts retained more durable gains, while broader erosion likely reflected a combination of changing market conditions, administrative neglect, and China’s discretionary reprioritization of purchases and approvals toward suppliers such as Brazil and Australia.

➩ Non-tariff barriers, including sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures, also proved highly discretionary. Market access secured under Phase One could be narrowed administratively without a formal policy reversal. U.S. beef plant registrations were allowed to lapse in 2024–25, while Chinese customs rejections of U.S. food shipments increased from a few hundred annually through 2022 to roughly 1,000 in 2025, concentrated primarily in beef and chicken paws.

➩ Econometric analysis confirms a real but temporary market-access gain. Even after accounting for tariff relief through China’s waiver process, global prices, competitor supply, and other market conditions, U.S. agricultural exports to China exceeded model-predicted levels by approximately $6.7 billion (+32%) in 2020 and $5.9 billion (+22%) in 2021. The estimated gain peaked at $12.6 billion (+49%) in 2022 before declining to roughly $3.0 billion (+14%) by 2024.

➩ The Phase One experience suggests that purchase commitments can generate substantial export gains, but their durability depends on sustained implementation and the broader trade environment. The agreement moved significant trade volumes when tariff waivers, SPS treatment, regulatory approvals, and commercial demand aligned. It also demonstrated that these channels can narrow over time without a formal reversal, making continuous monitoring and credible enforcement essential if new commitments are to translate into durable trade gains. The 2026 commitments enter a markedly different environment characterized by softer Chinese grain demand, expanded Brazilian supply, and a still-layered tariff structure.

Recommended Citation Format: Arita, S., Gale, F., Kim, J., and Steinbach, S. (2026). Assessing the 2020 U.S.-China Phase One Agreement: Lessons for 2026 Ag Commitments. NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-06. Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University. June 22, 2026.