FARGO, N.D. — June 15, 2026 — A new report from the Agricultural Risk Policy Center (ARPC) at North Dakota State University examines long-term trends in farm income, agricultural production, productivity, and public agricultural research and development (R&D) investment in North Dakota.

The report, Agricultural Production, Productivity, and Research Investment in North Dakota, was authored by Junkan Li, William Nganje, and Sandro Steinbach. It analyzes how rising production costs, changing productivity patterns, and public agricultural R&D investment have shaped North Dakota’s agricultural economy over time.

The study finds that although farm receipts and crop yields have increased substantially, rising input costs have limited growth in real net farm income, particularly in livestock production. Higher gross revenue has not translated into equally strong farm-level economic performance.

The report also finds that North Dakota experienced strong long-run total factor productivity growth after 1960, consistent with the delayed effects of earlier public agricultural R&D investment. However, productivity growth has slowed in recent decades, and aggregate productivity has stagnated after 2000.

Despite this slowdown, estimated returns to North Dakota agricultural R&D remain positive and economically meaningful. The preferred specification estimates an internal rate of return of 28.42 percent and a modified internal rate of return of 10.37 percent.

Counterfactual simulations suggest that if real agricultural R&D investment had continued to grow at the 2000–2015 rate during 2015–2025, additional agricultural production through 2075 would have been worth $7.47 billion in 2015 dollars. The findings highlight the long-run value of sustained public agricultural R&D investment for supporting productivity growth and production capacity in North Dakota.

The full report is available at: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/qrgezbb010z6rv74hhxi4/ARPC-Report-2026-02.pdf?rlkey=kyr4zrvqjqhuqiy6ji49ancvh&raw=1

Media Contact:
Agricultural Risk Policy Center (ARPC)
North Dakota State University
arpc@ndsu.edu
www.ndsu.edu/agriculture/arpc