A new white paper from the Agricultural Risk Policy Center (ARPC) at North Dakota State University analyzes the expected expansion of base acres authorized under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) for the 2026 crop year. The study provides the first comprehensive estimate of how many additional base acres could be added nationwide and examines the potential implications for ARC and PLC program payments.

The paper, Estimated Additional Base Acres Under OBBBA for Crop Year 2026 (ARPC White Paper 2026–03), authored by Dylan Turner, evaluates the statutory formula and recent USDA implementation guidance to estimate eligible base acre additions using USDA Farm Service Agency data. The analysis finds that 30.0 million additional base acres could be allocated nationally. However, the results also so the treatment of forage crops may play a significant role and potentially bring additional base acres as low as 18.6 million.

The results show that corn, soybeans, and wheat receive the largest shares of additional base acres, with estimated gains of 10.2 million acres for corn, 8.3 million for soybeans, and 7.1 million for wheat. At the state level, North Dakota, Texas, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Missouri are projected to receive the largest increases, together accounting for a substantial share of the national total. The paper also estimates the potential value of these additional base acres through ARC and PLC payments. Using estimated 2025 payment rates, the analysis suggests that additional base acres could generate hundreds of millions of dollars annually under similar market conditions, with particularly large payment impacts for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.

Finally, the study examines how the base acre update affects the long-standing gap between base and planted acres. While the update generally widens this gap for most crops, it narrows the divergence for soybeans and canola, bringing base acres closer to current production patterns.

The ARPC White Paper is available through the Agricultural Risk Policy Center at North Dakota State University: https://tinyurl.com/3mf2vm42

Media Contact:
Agricultural Risk Policy Center (ARPC)
North Dakota State University
arpc@ndsu.edu
https://www.ndsu.edu/agriculture/arpc