Estimated Additional Base Acres Under OBBBA for Crop Year 2026

➩ First net expansion of base acres since 2002. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) allows farmers to add new base acres for the first time in over two decades. Unlike the 2014 Farm Bill update, which was a zero-sum reallocation, this update permits a net increase in total base acres nationwide.

➩ Estimated 30 million additional base acres nationally. Under the main scenario incorporating recent USDA implementation guidance, 30 million acres would be added to the national base acre total.

➩ Estimates are particularly sensitive to treatment of forage crops. Excluding forage crops from “eligible non-covered commodities” reduces the estimated additional base acres to 18.6 million, suggesting additional base acres may be concentrated among areas with high prevalence of forage crops.

➩ Corn, soybeans, and wheat receive the largest allocations. Corn is expected to gain 10.2 million additional base acres, followed by soybeans (8.31 million) and wheat (7.1 million). In percentage terms, soybeans see the largest increase among major crops at 15%.

➩ North Dakota, Texas, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Missouri lead in additional base acres. North Dakota is expected to receive 2.88 million additional base acres, followed by Texas (2.67 million), Minnesota (2.21 million), South Dakota (2.16 million), and Missouri (1.93 million). Collectively, these states represent approximately 40% of the estimated 30 million additional base acres.

➩ Additional base acres valued at hundreds of millions in potential ARC/PLC payments. Using estimated 2025 crop year payment rates, the additional base acres would generate on the order of $414–$634 million in corn payments in a year with similar market conditions, with significant additional value for soybeans, wheat, and cotton.

➩ Update widens base-planted gap for most crops, but narrows it for soybeans and canola. Because the update can only add acres, it generally increases the divergence between base and planted acres. However, for crops like soybeans and canola where planted acres have expanded faster than base, the update brings base acres closer to current production levels.

Recommended Citation Format: Dylan Turner (2026). Estimated Additional Base Acres Under OBBBA for Crop Year 2026. ARPC White Paper 2026–03. Agricultural Risk Policy Center, North Dakota State University. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.388986