Additional Base Acres in the Upper Midwest for Crop Year 2026

Dylan Turner

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law on July 4, 2025, includes a provision allowing for a net expansion of base acres for the first time since the 2002 Farm Bill. The statutory formula allocates potential new base acres to a farm based on the difference between the five‐year average (2019– 2023) of covered commodity plantings plus an adjustment factor, and the farm’s existing base acres as of

September 30, 2024. The adjustment factor accounts for acres planted to eligible non‐covered commodities, capped at 15% of total farm acres. If the national sum of eligible additional acres exceeds 30 million, allocations are prorated proportionally. Recent Federal Register guidance (Farm Service Agency, 2026) clarified several ambiguities in the original statutory language, including the definition of total farm acres and the treatment of eligible non‐covered commodities. A detailed discussion of the update mechanics and national‐level estimates is provided in Turner (2026).

Under scenario S1 from Turner (2026), which applies the statutory formula using Federal Register implementation guidance on the definition of total farm acres and eligible non‐covered commodities, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota collectively stand to receive approximately 7.25 million additional base acres, representing about 24% of the 30 million total base acres expected to be added. Figure 1 displays the county‐level distribution of these additional base acres across the Upper Midwest. North Dakota leads with an estimated 2.88 million additional base acres, followed closely by Minnesota (2.21 million) and South Dakota (2.16 million). Additional base acres are distributed relatively evenly across the Dakotas, but the commodity composition varies by geography and reflects general planting patterns. Eastern counties are characterized by additions of corn and soybean base, while wheat accounts for the bulk of new base acres in the western portions of North Dakota and South Dakota.

The commodity composition of additional base acres differs across the three states, with wheat, soybeans, and corn as the three largest contributors in each. In North Dakota, wheat is the dominant contributor at 1.07 million acres, followed by soybeans (695,000 acres) and corn (535,000 acres). South Dakota’s additional base acres are led by corn (828,000 acres) and soybeans (572,000 acres), with wheat contributing 419,000 acres. Minnesota’s allocation is split nearly evenly between soybeans (895,000 acres) and corn (877,000 acres), with wheat adding 370,000 acres. County‐level maps for corn, soybeans, and wheat are provided in Figures 2–4.

Figure 1: Estimated Additional Base Acres by County

Note: Values in thousands of acres. Estimates based on scenario S1 from Turner (2026), which incorporates Federal Register implementation guidance (Farm Service Agency, 2026).

Source: Author calculations using USDA Farm Service Agency data.

Figure 2: Estimated Additional Corn Base Acres by County

Note: Values in thousands of acres. See Figure 1 notes for scenario details.

Source: Author calculations using USDA Farm Service Agency data.

Figure 3: Estimated Additional Soybean Base Acres by County

Note: Values in thousands of acres. See Figure 1 notes for scenario details.

Source: Author calculations using USDA Farm Service Agency data.

Figure 4: Estimated Additional Wheat Base Acres by County

Note: Values in thousands of acres. See Figure 1 notes for scenario details.

Source: Author calculations using USDA Farm Service Agency data.