North Dakota ARC and PLC Payments for Crop Year 2025

By: Dylan Turner

Farmers enrolled in the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs will receive their payments for the 2025 crop later this month. In North Dakota, these payments are estimated to be much larger than last year’s ARC and PLC payments. Using USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) data available as of October 2026, this analysis estimates that North Dakota farms will receive approximately $678 million for the 2025 crop, substantially more than the $26 million estimated to have been paid for the 2024 crop (paid in October of 2025). Since ARC and PLC payments are tied to a crop year rather than the calendar year payments arrive, payments arriving this month reflect 2025 prices, 2025 county yields, and the program rules in place for 2025. Wheat accounts for most of the increase.

Projected wheat payments are approximately $406 million, about 60% of the state total and up from about $4 million for the 2024 crop. Soybeans follow at approximately $107 million, then corn at about $83 million and canola at about $47 million. The remaining covered crops, which primarily consist of barley, sunflower, and dry peas, add about $35 million together.

Figure 1: Estimated ARC and PLC Payments in North Dakota by Crop, 2024 and 2025 Crop Years

Note: 2024 payments are calculated under 2018 Farm Bill rules (86% ARC-CO guarantee, 10% payment cap) on each county's

2024 ARC-CO and PLC elections. 2025 payments are calculated under OBBBA rules (90% ARC-CO guarantee, 12% payment cap), and as provided by the OBBBA for the 2025 crop year, each county and crop receives the higher of the ARC-CO or PLC payment on base acres enrolled in either program. Values in parentheses are dollars per enrolled base acre. All other includes the remaining covered commodities. Payments are after the 5.7% sequestration reduction and before payment and adjusted gross income limits.

Source: ARPC calculations using USDA Farm Service Agency ARC/PLC program data as of October 1, 2026.

The increase in payments from 2024 to 2025 represents the combination of several factors. First, 2024 payments were small, in part because a large North Dakota crop offset weak prices. Wheat, corn, and soybean prices were about 10% to 11% below the benchmark prices that county-level ARC (ARC-CO) uses to set its revenue guarantee. However, county yields were well above their benchmarks, about 18% above for wheat, 9% above for corn, and 8% above for soybeans when weighted by enrolled base acres, so county revenue generally stayed above the ARC-CO guarantee. Marketing year average prices also stayed above the effective reference prices that applied at the time, by less than 1% for wheat and canola and by 7% to 8% for corn and soybeans, so PLC payments were not triggered for these crops.

Second, in contrast to 2024, the 2025 crop year was characterized by lower wheat and corn prices. The 2025 wheat marketing year average price fell to $5.06 per bushel, below even the $5.56 effective reference price that would have applied under the 2018 Farm Bill. Soybean yields were below their benchmarks in some counties, including several with large amounts of soybean base acres, while soybean prices, although slightly higher than in 2024, stayed well below the benchmark price. Third, the 2025 crop year brought a new policy environment ushered in by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which raised statutory reference prices in addition to increasing the ARC-CO guarantee from 86% to 90% of benchmark revenue and the payment cap from 10% to 12% of benchmark revenue. Finally, the OBBBA specified, for 2025 only, that the higher of the ARC-CO or PLC payment would be made on enrolled base acres.

Figure 2: North Dakota ARC and PLC Payments under Each Year's Market Conditions and Rules

Note: Each bar applies one year's program rules to one crop year's prices, county yields, benchmarks, and enrolled base. 2018 Farm Bill rules pay PLC and ARC-CO on each county's elections. OBBBA rules pay the higher of ARC-CO or PLC on base enrolled in either program, as provided for the 2025 crop year. Bars labeled hypothetical were never paid. Payments are after the 5.7% sequestration reduction and before payment and adjusted gross income limits.

Source: ARPC calculations using USDA Farm Service Agency ARC/PLC program data as of October 1, 2026.

Figure 2 compares the effects of market dynamics and the new policy rules by running each year’s data under both sets of program rules. Under 2018 Farm Bill rules, 2025 market conditions alone would have produced roughly $186 million in payments, about 7 times the 2024 payment. Applied to 2024 market conditions, the OBBBA rules alone would have paid roughly $390 million, about 15 times the 2024 payment. Neither hypothetical amount was paid, but together they indicate that both market conditions and the new policy rules drove the increase, with the new policy environment having the larger effect.

Although the figures presented here reflect the best available information, they are still estimates built from public county-level FSA data as opposed to official FSA payment records. Adjusted gross income and payment limits are not accounted for and will reduce what some farms receive. Similarly, individual-coverage ARC (ARC-IC) payments are not accounted for in these totals. Overall, North Dakota farms are projected to receive approximately $678 million in ARC and PLC payments for the 2025 crop this October with wheat accounting for the majority of that total, a substantial increase over 2024 crop year payments that reflects both changes in 2025 markets and the more generous program rules under the OBBBA. Read the full ARPC Brief: 2026-19

Recommended Citation: Dylan Turner (2026). North Dakota ARC and PLC Payments for Crop Year 2025. ARPC Brief 2026–19. Agricultural Risk Policy Center, North Dakota State University. October 2, 2026 https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.413090