Key Insights
➤ Strikes on export ports have spread from the Black Sea to Russia’s Baltic coast. In July–August 2026, the four Black Sea exporters loaded 14.4 million tons of grain, fertilizer, and other dry-bulk cargo, 32 percent less than their 2023–25 average for those months.
➤ Other exporters made up only part of the lost wheat. Black Sea wheat loadings fell 31 percent in July–August. Russia and Ukraine loaded about 4.3 million tons less than usual, and exporters led by Canada, Romania, and Argentina loaded about 3.3 million tons more. Some buyers switched suppliers; others, including Egypt, bought less, partly due to large harvests at home.
➤ Ukraine is shipping more grain by rail, but rail capacity is limited. About 346,000 tons of grain crossed Ukraine’s western border by rail in the first half of September. Ukraine’s September grain exports were on pace to finish about 32 percent below last year. Because our vessel-loading data do not include rail, they overstate the decline in Ukraine’s total exports.
➤ Corn lost its main export route with no nearby replacement. Ukraine accounted for about 80 percent of Black Sea corn loadings in 2019–25. After its ports were hit, Ukrainian corn loadings fell about 95 percent, and loadings at Romanian and Bulgarian ports fell as well. With the harvest beginning, the risk of corn backing up in inland storage is rising.
➤ U.S. corn shipments to several European buyers rose, but U.S. wheat sales did not. Corn shipments to Spain, the Netherlands, and Portugal, already above normal before July, rose further as their Black Sea supply ended. U.S. wheat export sales were 34.5 percent below a year earlier. U.S. Gulf wheat was quoted at $346 a ton in mid-September, $135 above Russian wheat, and drought cut the U.S. hard red winter crop by 42 percent.
➤ Russian fertilizer shipments to the United States stopped in August. Loadings at Ust-Luga, Russia’s main fertilizer port, stayed strong, but U.S.-bound loadings fell to zero, against roughly 200,000 tons in a normal month. We have not yet estimated the cost to U.S. farmers.
➤ China’s “30-for-30” list could lower tariffs on most U.S. farm products. China says more than 90 percent of listed products would move to standard (MFN) rates once both sides complete domestic procedures. Commercial soybeans have a separate purchase commitment.
Recommended Citation: Wang, M., Chakravorty, R., Kim, J., Steinbach, S., and Arita, S. (2026). The Russia-Ukraine Port Disruptions in Shipping Data: Effects on Grain, Fertilizer, and U.S. Trade. NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2026-09. Agricultural Risk Policy Center, North Dakota State University. September 28, 2026. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.413084