Key Insights
➤ Reciprocal Tariff Pause Extended. The 90-day suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs, originally set to expire on July 9, has been extended through August 1.
➤ Tariff Notification Letters Sent to at Least 22 Countries. Countries were formally notified of their specific August 1 tariff rates. U.S. trade partners have largely refrained from retaliation against the reciprocal tariffs, with the exception of China, which had initially imposed retaliatory tariffs but has since reduced them.
➤ U.S.–Vietnam Trade Deal Announced. The deal is set to impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports (40% on transshipped goods), while opening new opportunities for key U.S. agricultural exports.
➤ China’s Agricultural Imports Down Despite Global Growth. China’s agricultural imports are down 18% year-to-date, the steepest contraction among major markets, while most other regions show strong positive growth.
➤ China’s Import Demand Particularly Weak for Grains. China’s grain imports fell tremendously relative to last year: wheat down 81%, corn 94%, and coarse grains 44%. However, soybean imports remain relatively stable.
➤ Mixed Performance Across U.S. Agricultural Commodity Exports Year-to-Date. Hides and skins, poultry, beef, and soybean exports are at five-year lows; however, exports continue to be strong in ethanol, soybean meal, and corn.
➤ June U.S. Agricultural Export Shipments and New Contracted Export Sales Were Mixed. June export sales were up for feed grains and soybeans, but down for wheat and meat products. New contracted sales to China continue to be anemic.
Recommended Citation: Arita, S., Steinbach, S., Wang, M., and Zhuang, X. (2025). China’s Import Declines Reflect Broader Demand Weakness. NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2025-07. Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University. July 10, 2025. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.359278