Key Insights
➤ Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods suspended. Retaliatory tariffs imposed in March 2025 in response to the U.S. “Fentanyl tariff,” which covered U.S. farm products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, beef, pork, poultry, dairy, and sorghum, have been lifted. However, the 10% retaliatory tariffs imposed in April 2025 in response to the U.S. “reciprocal tariff” measures remain in effect.
➤ China commits to 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans this year and 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028. These explicit volume commitments, totaling 87 MMT, establish an export floor for U.S. soybeans.
➤ The agreement establishes reasonable export targets reflecting recent demand patterns. The 25 MMT floor provides a defined floor that stabilizes export expectations. While the commitment does not restore pre-2018 trade volumes, it is higher than 2024/25 export levels and it prevents further market erosion amid competing pressures from Brazilian supply growth.
➤ Prices of key ag commodities increased surrounding news of the deal. Soybeans increased above $11/bu on the announced commitments; sorghum and wheat are noticeably up on trade rumors.
➤ Compliance details uncertain. The agreement has not publicly disclosed monitoring procedures, enforcement actions for shortfalls, or whether “market conditions” flexibility clauses exist (as in Phase 1).
➤ How will China meet its soybean commitments? Past patterns show Chinese purchases closely track U.S.–Brazil price spreads, with strong buying when U.S. prices are competitive and sales falling when premiums widen. It is unclear whether China will prioritize the 25 MMT target despite unfavorable pricing, overlook the 10% retaliatory tariff, or keep purchases contingent on competitive cost fundamentals.
➤ Soybean basis improved from September lows following deal announcement. Basis strengthened in response to deal, though still significantly weaker than normal.
➤ One-year Section 301 port fee suspension set to relieve maritime cost pressures on bulk agricultural exports. Had fees remained in place, they would have cost U.S. agriculture approximately $2.3 billion, with bulk commodities like corn, soybeans, and wheat facing upwards of an additional 5–7 cents per bushel in shipping cost increases. Market evidence shows U.S. freight rates to China deteriorated relative to Canadian (1.8–1.9¢/bu) and Brazilian (2.7¢/bu) competitors following fee announcements; suspension effective November 10 restores prior competitiveness while longer-term shipping challenges remain.
➤ Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Vietnam deals broaden export access. New deals with Southeast Asia to support U.S. oilseed, grain, meat, and other agricultural exports.
Recommended Citation: Arita, S., Kim, J., Lwin, W. Y., Steinbach, S., Wang, M., and Zhuang, X. (2025). Implications of New U.S.-China Deal, Soybean Commitments, Port Fee Suspension, and SE Asia Deals. NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2025-11. Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University. November 6, 2025. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.373422