Key Insights
➤ Chinese retaliatory tariffs surged to historic highs above 125% in April. A 90-day truce in May lowered rates, but many U.S. agricultural products still face significant tariffs in China.
➤ Exports to China dropped 55% in April. High tariffs and China’s pivot to South American suppliers slashed demand, although exports did not fully collapse during the tariff surge.
➤ $5B loss in China market outpaces gains elsewhere. Most other markets saw higher exports, but overall U.S. ag exports are down $2B year-to-date.
➤ Mexico remains the top market. Exports to Canada are down, while there have been increases in the EU, Korea, Vietnam, and other destinations.
➤ Export performance varies sharply by commodity. While corn, soybean meal, and ethanol exports remain strong, China-dependent products such as sorghum, soybeans, and beef are at multi-year lows.
➤ Contracted forward export sales to China have stalled. This coincides with a seasonal low for China purchases, so there is still potential for recovery later in the year, depending on the trade situation.
➤ U.S. agricultural trade deficit edged higher in April. Both exports and imports declined, but imports continue to outpace exports.
Recommended Citation: Arita, S., Steinbach, S., and Zhuang, X. (2025). NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2025-06. Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University. June 10, 2025. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.358820