Key Insights
➤ Zero Soybean Bookings to China for 2025/26 Crop Year. New-crop sales to China stood at zero by the end of August, an unprecedented development this late in the season.
➤ Lack of Alternative Markets to Absorb Chinese Demand. Lost Chinese demand for soybeans has not been offset elsewhere or by domestic biofuel and feedstock use.
➤ North Dakota Basis Crashes to Historic Lows. Soybean forward basis has plunged to -$1.50/bushel, surpassing even 2018 trade war depths and occurring weeks earlier in the season.
➤ Upper Midwest Bears Brunt of Basis Collapse. Areas dependent on Pacific Northwest (PNW) rail corridors are seeing basis discounts over $1.00/bu below normal levels.
➤ Soybean Cash Prices Fall Below $8.50/Bushel, Significantly Below the Cost of Production. Northern Plains areas record the weakest cash prices, worsening an already below-breakeven pricing environment.
➤ Rail Infrastructure Pivots Away from China-Dependent Corridors. Railroads cut rates to Gulf ports while leaving PNW rates unchanged as networks optimize around the anticipated lack of PNW demand.
➤ China Stocking Up on Brazil Soybeans. Late-season Brazilian shipments dominate China’s import needs as the U.S. is losing market share across seasonal peak periods.
➤ China’s Avoidance of U.S. Ag Products Extends Across All Major Commodities. Zero outstanding sales for corn, wheat, and sorghum at the end of August, all major commodities having limited or zero sales on the books to China.
➤ USDA Forecasts Record-Low $9 Billion in China Ag Exports. USDA’s 2025/26 projection falls below 2018/19 trade war levels and represents a 75% decline from the 2021/22 peak.
Recommended Citation: Arita, S., Kim, J., Lwin, W. Y., Steinbach, S., and Zhuang, X. (2025). Soybean Basis Hits Record Low Amid Zero New-Crop Sales to China. NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2025-09. Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University. September 12, 2025. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.369070