Key Insights
➤ Supreme Court to rule on IEEPA tariffs. The Court heard oral arguments in November on whether IEEPA authorizes presidential tariffs. Prediction markets assign only a 25–28% probability that tariffs will be upheld in full. A ruling could come as early as late 2025 or early 2026.
➤ November exemptions cut effective tariffs on ag inputs to 9%. New Executive Orders exempted key fertilizers (UAN, urea, DAP, MAP) from IEEPA tariffs. Combined with April exemptions, approximately 84% of U.S. fertilizer imports are now exempt. The trade-weighted effective tariff on ag inputs fell from 11% to 9%.
➤ Food import tariffs cut from 15% to 9%. Executive Orders in November exempted cocoa, coffee, most beef products, fresh fruit, tree nuts, and other food products from reciprocal tariffs. The trade-weighted effective IEEPA tariff on food imports fell from 15% in April to 9%, reducing costs for U.S. importers and downstream processors.
➤ Reciprocal trade deals open new market access opportunities for U.S. agriculture. Completed agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia eliminate tariffs and streamline SPS certification. Framework agreements with Thailand, Vietnam, Argentina, El Salvador, Switzerland, and eight other economies feature tariff cuts, NTB reforms, and purchase commitments, pending implementation and follow-through.
➤ China’s soybean purchases suggest strategic buying over price fundamentals. In November, China made several flash purchases of U.S. soybeans despite U.S. landed prices running roughly $80/mt above Brazilian supplies, a departure from historical price-driven procurement patterns and a signal that trade commitments may be overriding market fundamentals.
➤ China’s soybean purchases need to ramp up to meet the 12 MMT commitment. Cumulative U.S. sales to China reached 2.9 MMT by early December, approximately 24% of the target. Meeting the commitments would require over 700,000 Mts per week.
Recommended Citation: Arita, S., Gammans, M., Kim, J., Lwin, W. Y., Steinbach, S., Wang, M., and Zhuang, X. (2025). Supreme Court, Food and Input Tariff Relief, and Market Access Opportunities Through Recent Trade Deals. NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor 2025-12. Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University. December 8, 2025. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.376295