Featured Publications

Proposition 12 Increased Consumer Costs in U.S. Pork Markets

Using retail and wholesale data from 2020 to 2026, this study evaluates how Proposition 12 affected pork prices, market segmentation, and consumer costs. The results show that compliant pork remains a small share of the market but commands higher prices, with retail price increases nearly three times larger than wholesale premiums. Overall, the policy led to higher consumer costs, exceeding $400 million, while reducing pork purchases in affected states.

Fertilizer Price Projections Under Strait of Hormuz Disruption Scenarios

This study evaluates how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affect fertilizer prices and agricultural costs using a global fertilizer market model and 25 years of trade data. The results show that fertilizer prices could rise sharply across all scenarios, with urea reaching up to $996 per ton and remaining elevated through 2027. Despite lower prices than in 2022, affordability worsens due to lower crop prices, increasing cost pressure on farmers and reducing demand.

Routine Actuarial Adjustments Cut Taxpayer Cost in Subsidized Agricultural Insurance

Routine adjustments to crop insurance rating parameters can significantly reduce taxpayer costs while maintaining program effectiveness. The results show that updating all ratemaking parameters reduces taxpayer expenditure by roughly 10% annually, while updating reference yields alone can generate savings of up to 15%. However, gains are uneven across states, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving actuarially sound and fiscally efficient pricing.

Four Months After the Strait of Hormuz Closure: Fertilizer Market Adjustment and a Revised Outlook

ARPC White Paper 2026-09

2026

Ming Wang, Rwit Chakravorty, Shawn Arita, and Sandro Steinbach

Fifty Years of Growth and the Road Ahead for Crop Insurance Penetration in the United States

ARPC Brief 2026-18

2026

Francis Tsiboe

Crop Insurance and Nitrogen Reduction Under Elevated Fertilizer Prices

ARPC White Paper 2026-08

2026

Francis Tsiboe, Dylan Turner, Shawn Arita, Kyle Jore, Rwit Chakravorty, and Seth

Meyer

Temporary Tariff Relief for Agricultural Machinery

ARPC Brief 2026-17

2026

Dongin Kim, Sandro Steinbach

Quantifying the Price Effects of Over-Quota Sugar Imports on the U.S. Domestic Market

ARPC White Paper 2026-07

2026

Shawn Arita, Ming Wang, and Sandro Steinbach

Updated Evidence on Proposition 12 Impacts on Pork Prices, Wholesale Segmentation, and Consumption

ARPC White Paper 2026-06

2026

Wuit Yi Lwin, Andrew Keller, Shawn Arita, Joseph Cooper, and Sandro Steinbach

Projected Impact of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz Closure on Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Profitability in North Dakota

ARPC White Paper 2026-05

2026

Chakravorty Rwit, Arita Shawn, and Steinbach Sandro

Use of Feeder Cattle Livestock Risk Protection Insurance in Kansas

ARPC White Paper 2026-04

2026

Coffey Brian K., Ifft Jennifer, and Zhang Yifei

Estimated Additional Base Acres Under OBBBA for Crop Year 2026

ARPC White Paper 2026-03

2026

Dylan Turner

Prevented Planting Buy-Up Elimination and What the Evidence Indicates about Adoption, Actuarial Performance, and Pre-Planting Risk Management Options for Farmers

ARPC White Paper 2026-02

2026

Francis Tsiboe, Rwit Chakravorty, Dylan Turner, Shawn Arita, and Hongxi Zhao

Prevented Planting After Buy-Up Elimination: Coverage Level Substitution, Producer Costs, and the Role of Enhanced Premium Subsidies Under the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB)

ARPC White Paper 2026-01

2026

Francis Tsiboe

Crude Oil, 45Z Uncertainty, and Rising U.S. Soybean Oil Prices

ARPC Brief 2026-09

2026

Ming Wang and Frayne Olson

Continued Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage (PRF) Insurance Expansion in 2026

ARPC Brief 2026-08

2026

Francis Tsiboe and Walker Davis

Are Crop Yields Becoming More Stable and Higher? Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data Since 1980

ARPC Brief 2026-07

2026

Junkan Li and Francis Tsiboe

Routine Pricing Adjustments Help Keep Crop Insurance Costs in Check

ARPC Brief 2026-06

2026

Francis Tsiboe and Evelyn Osei

Explore our recent research, commentary, and updates on evolving challenges in agricultural risk and policy.