Quantifying the Price Effects of Over-Quota Sugar Imports on the U.S. Domestic Market

The central findings of this white paper  imply that Tier 2 (over-quota) imports depressed U.S. domestic raw sugar prices by approximately 5–8 cents/lb during FY2025–FY2026, the core injury window in which cumulative Tier 2 inflows had generated the largest import displacement and stock overhang. The mechanism is a compositional shift in which administered, price-stabilizing supply from Mexico was displaced by arbitrage-driven supply that imposes a price ceiling on the domestic market. Total import volumes remained roughly stable; however, the source of those imports changed in ways that undermined the managed supply system.